The Rise in Political Violence in the United States and Damage to Our Democracy – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Investigation Begins After Gunfire at Trump Campaign Rally in Butler
A flag fluttered over the stage as law enforcement combed through the event grounds where gunfire erupted during a rally for Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 15, 2024. The shooting at the rally, which left one person dead and two others seriously injured, has left Americans deeply concerned about the state of their nation.
A Nation on Edge
WASHINGTON, July 16 (Reuters) – In the aftermath of an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, fear grips the nation. A Reuters/Ipsos poll, closing just this Tuesday, paints a grim picture: Americans are anxious that the upcoming November 5 election could ignite further political violence. The poll reveals Trump slightly ahead of Democratic President Joe Biden among registered voters, with a narrow lead of 43% to 41%, within the poll’s 3-point margin of error. This suggests the attempt on Trump’s life hasn’t dramatically shifted voter sentiment.
However, a staggering 80% of voters, spanning both Democrats and Republicans, agree that “the country is spiraling out of control.” The poll, conducted online, surveyed 1,202 U.S. adults nationwide, including 992 registered voters.
A Close Call
Trump narrowly escaped death on Saturday when a would-be assassin’s bullet grazed his ear as he addressed supporters in Pennsylvania. Blood trickled down his face, yet he defiantly pumped his fist and mouthed “Fight! Fight! Fight!” as he was whisked offstage. The rally’s chaos revived memories of the 1960s’ political turmoil, recalling the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy in 1963 and presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy in 1968.
Rising Fears of Violence
The poll highlights growing fears: 84% of voters are concerned that extremists will resort to violence post-election, a rise from 74% in May’s Reuters/Ipsos poll. The January 6, 2021, Capitol attack by Trump supporters looms large in American memory. On that day, four people died, and a Capitol Police officer succumbed the next day.
Though fears of violence are widespread, few endorse it. Only 5% of respondents believe it’s acceptable for their political party to use violence for political goals, down from 12% in June 2023.
Community Concerns
The latest poll also shows that 67% of respondents fear violence against their community due to political beliefs, up from 60% in June 2023. Both Democrats and Republicans share this concern, worried that Americans might choose violence over peaceful resolution of disagreements.
Divine Protection?
Trump’s survival has sparked discussions among his conservative Christian supporters about divine intervention. In the poll, 65% of registered Republicans view Trump’s escape as a sign of divine favor or God’s will, a belief shared by 11% of Democrats. The U.S. stands out among wealthy nations for its strong religious beliefs, with evangelical Christians closely aligned with the Republican Party. A 2022 Gallup International Association poll found that 77% of Americans believe in God, compared to 56% of Canadians and 39% of Brits.
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