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Modi Claims Victory Despite Unexpected Setback in India Elections 2024

PM Modi acknowledging the peoples’ greetings especially on his third term

NEW DELHI — Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared victory Tuesday, but it wasn’t the landslide he had anticipated. Despite his party losing seats to a stronger-than-expected opposition, Modi proclaimed that Indian voters had “shown immense faith” in his party and his National Democratic Alliance coalition. This marks a rare third term for Modi as leader of the world’s most populous country.

Modi’s Hindu Nationalist BJP Secures Majority

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and allied parties were leading in early election results, securing almost 300 of 543 seats in Parliament, granting them a simple majority. However, for the first time since the BJP’s rise to power in 2014, it failed to secure a majority on its own, winning only 240 seats. This outcome was surprising, as exit polls had predicted a sweeping victory for Modi’s alliance.

The election results indicate that Modi, whose influence over India has grown since he assumed power in 2014, will need to form a coalition to maintain his position. This coalition may be uncertain, with opposition leader Rahul Gandhi potentially seeking alliances with parties previously aligned with the BJP.

Challenges for Modi Amidst a Mixed Result

Modi’s tenure is marked by a significant base of supporters who credit him with India’s economic growth and global presence. A Morning Consult survey shows Modi with a high approval rating of 74%, making him the world’s most popular leader. However, his critics accuse him of eroding human rights and increasing religious tensions, particularly against India’s Muslim minority.

During the campaign, Modi and BJP candidates faced accusations of hate speech and inflammatory rhetoric. Additionally, India continues to grapple with providing sufficient jobs for its 1.4 billion population, despite being the fastest-growing major economy.

At BJP headquarters in New Delhi, the atmosphere was mixed. While supporters celebrated outside, the mood inside was tense as the anticipated supermajority slipped away. Ram Shankar Maharaj, a Hindu priest from Ayodhya, expressed disappointment, blaming some voters for betraying Indian tradition. The Ayodhya constituency, significant for its contested holy site temple, was among those the BJP conceded.

India’s benchmark stock indices reflected the election’s uncertainty, hitting record highs on Monday following favorable exit polls, then dropping sharply on Tuesday as the results unfolded. Modi emphasized the broader alliance in his speech, praising its leaders rather than focusing solely on the BJP.

Opposition Gains and Concerns for Minorities

Congress, the main opposition party, celebrated the results as a victory for democracy. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge highlighted the people’s triumph. Yet, Modi’s vision of a Hindu-first nation remains deeply embedded in Indian politics, raising concerns among minorities about their future under his continued leadership.

In Varanasi, Modi’s home constituency, voters expressed diverse views. Business student Tasneem Fatma voiced a desire for a united India without religious divisions. The election, spanning six weeks and involving nearly a billion voters, faced challenges, including extreme heat that may have impacted turnout.

Experts attribute India’s increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves to climate change, though neither major party addressed this during their campaigns. The primary concern for voters was employment, particularly among young people, who represent a significant portion of the unemployed.

The opposition, despite efforts to challenge Modi on issues like unemployment and rising costs, struggled with internal divisions and alleged government suppression. Yamini Aiyar, former chief executive of the Center for Policy Research, described the BJP as becoming “creepingly authoritarian.”

Despite criticisms, elections in India are generally seen as free and fair, although freedom of expression is reportedly shrinking. Internationally, Modi’s governance poses challenges, especially for countries like the U.S., which view India as a crucial partner against China.

Modi defended India’s democratic values during a state visit to Washington last year, rejecting claims of discrimination. The relationship between India and the U.S. is expected to strengthen regardless of election outcomes, driven by strategic interests in countering China’s influence.

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