Ravi Speaks: Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on India broadly.

The scene from the on-going war between Russia and Ukraine.

Ravi Speaks:

It was boldly the topic in the New York Times:

“Russia’s War Could Make It India’s World.”

The invasion of Ukraine, compounding the effects of the pandemic, has contributed to the ascent of a giant that defies easy alignment. It could be the decisive force in a changing global system. That way India emerges as the key global player amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

India was not seated at the top table of the post-war order. But today, at a time when President Vladimir V. Putin’s military aggression has vividly illustrated what a world of strongmen and imperial competition would look like, India may have the ability to tip the scales in favour of a system governed by democratic plurality or by authoritarian tyrants.

Those factors have contributed to buoyant projections that India, now No. 5, will be the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, behind only the United States and China.

Presently as a layman following are the after effects being observed between the two countries-ongoing-conflict.

Adverse after-effects of Russia-Ukraine on going war.

The prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a number of negative impacts on both nations as well as the rest of the world. The battle has strained international political ties, increased the cost of food and fuel, and sparked a humanitarian crisis. The sanctions imposed by the West have also led to economic hardship, with a reduction in Russia’s GDP and a decline in remittances sent home by migrant workers from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Also, the war has hampered the flow of supplies like gasoline and fertiliser, creating problems for the supply chain and the environment. [1]

Due to the fact that around 10% of the world’s oil production is produced in Russia, the war has also had a huge effect on India. As a result, oil is now costing more than $100 a barrel. The war has a bearing on nuclear energy as well; India is assisting Ukraine in this regard. [2]

Ultimately, the war in Ukraine will have far-reaching effects on world security, financial stability, and the security of food and energy. [3

Advantages/Disadvantages to India from Russia-Ukraine war.

India has benefited in various ways from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. An article from The New York Times claims that the conflict helped India become a more significant participant in the world by enabling it to resist simple alignment and fortify its international standing.

1 Furthermore, according to a Times of India story, the war has a direct or indirect impact on a variety of prices, including those for food, gasoline, cosmetics, automobiles, steel, and aluminium.

2 India has been able to gain from lower product prices because to this, which can boost the country’s economy.

In addition, according to an NPR piece, the war has increased India’s imports of Russian crude oil from 0.2% to 28% from what it was before the war.

3 Due to lower oil costs, India has been able to benefit economically. Also, India has adopted a studied public neutrality towards Russia, which can help it retain good relations with both Russia and Ukraine, according to a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace report.

4 Last but not least, a Foreign Policy article claims that the conflict has given India access to cheap Russian oil and other strategic advantages.

5 Overall, India has benefited from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a number of ways, including improved geopolitical status, decreased pricing for goods, and lower oil prices.

Shift of Indian relations after Russia-Ukraine war

Indian relations with both Russia and Ukraine have been significantly impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war.

On the one hand, India has continued its long-standing strategic alliance with Russia, a significant source of gas, oil, and defence supplies to India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly said that despite the situation in Ukraine, India will continue to preserve its close connection with Russia.

1 The conflict has, however, also affected India’s relations with Russia. Due to Western sanctions against Russia, both the GDP and the amount of money migrant workers from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan send home have decreased. India’s economic ties with Russia, a significant commercial partner of India, have been impacted by this.

Yet, the conflict has also affected India’s relations with Ukraine. India has reportedly been assisting Ukraine with humanitarian aid, medical supplies, and other sorts of support, according to a report from The Economic Times.

2 India has also urged a peaceful end to the conflict and reaffirmed its support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.

Ultimately, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had a complex and wide-ranging effect on India’s relations with both countries. Even though India and Russia have maintained their strategic alliance, the crisis has also affected their economic ties. India has also offered support and help to Ukraine, demonstrating a change in the country’s relationship with Ukraine.

Present standing of Russia and Ukraine globally.

Due to its role in the conflict in Ukraine, Russia’s reputation has suffered on the world stage. With their invasion of Ukraine in 2020, Russia’s position in the U.S. News Best Countries rankings drastically declined[1]. With the exception of its longtime client state in Belarus, relations with the West have deteriorated to Cold War levels[2], and Moscow has few allies throughout the world. Russia exports wheat, barley, corn, and cooking oil, notably to nations in Africa and the Middle East, as a result of its actions in Ukraine[3].

On the other side, Ukraine has been making efforts to defend itself from Russian invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has vowed to preserve Bakhmut and paid respect to servicemen from Ukraine who were executed. A arrangement to give Ukraine food aid has also been mediated by Turkey and the UN[3].

As a result of its engagement in the conflict in Ukraine, Russia’s standing has generally declined, despite the fact that Ukraine has been making efforts to defend itself and accept assistance from other nations.

Sources:

  1. https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2022-09-27/russias-global-standing-takes-a-hit-in-best-countries-rankings
  2. https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe
  3. https://www.npr.org/2023/02/22/1157106172/ukraine-russia-war-refugees-food-prices

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/07/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-377-of-the-invasion

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