Ravi Speaks:
Israel Doctor’s Twitter
Yesterday the number of new cases of Corona getting a very high jump upwards and the increase of the new variant-Omicron infected cases has made all the administrations very cautious and as a result of this, we in Delhi also have been given a series of restrictions to follow. There has been the night curfew put and the schools, theatres, and Malls, etc have also been advised to either shut down completely or partially. After a gap of around one and a half years, we had started heaving a sigh of relief from the COVID-19 since we have already seen the worst of things happening to our brothers and sisters during the second wave phase.
Everyone is in a state of panic and does not know as to what would be the next scenario shortly looking to the rapid increase in the new cases and also in the Omicron infested cases.
The arrival of the latest variants of the coronavirus,first identified in Botswana and South Africa and now present in the United States, is terrible news. Or it could be just a temporary distraction from the Delta. Ultimately, the effect of Omicron on the course of a pandemic is determined by three factors: To the extent that it escapes from our existing immune defences. And its toxicity or the severity of the disease it is causing. We all face major problems if we find that Omicron can easily bypass neutralizing antibodies and move between hosts, causing unusually dangerous complications. But it can do many other things as well, with more subtle effects. For example, if Omicron is highly contagious but the symptoms are mild, it may even be good-a perfect variant just in time for winters.
Suddenly a twitter made many rounds yesterday. This is the one from the leading doctor of Israel namely Dr.Afshine Emrani-who says that the coming of the Omicron variant is God’s boon to humanity since it is the same which we as scientists were looking to have as the vaccine or the anti-dose for the Corona. Twitter is self-explanatory. If we believe his statement-then this variant of Omicron should prove to be a boon for humanity and it should immediately with the pace of its spreading power help erase all the Delta variants faster.
Twitter became the laughing stock as well.
He gives a couple of weeks for the total eradication of Delta Variant from the WorldTravel speaking everyone would like to see this Twitter coming true and the wiping-off process for the Delta variant should start with the spread of the Omicron variant.
Still, in no simpler terms, we must not forget our basic three works to be done as mandatory ones like washing of hands, keeping the distance and above all wearing the face mask. All of us have gone through the terrible second phase and each one of us realizes the fact that we should not at any cost give an aorta of a chance for the COVID to spread any further.
Of late we have almost started recovering back our speed of progress which unfortunately had gone to a standstill in the last more than a year and to ensure that we get back on track faster we must not leave any precaution needed for the eradication of this pandemic.
Now let us keep this Twitter thing aside and seriously check out the forecasting done by some of the well-known research centers of the universe.
On Wednesday, the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation released new projections, showing approximately 3 billion infections globally between now and the end of February. “We believe it will reach all countries quite soon,” the institute’s director, Chris Murray, told reporters at a briefing.
If the numbers are to be believed — critics have previously assailed the institute’s Covid-19 modeling as unreliable — then we’re talking about two years’ worth of infections cresting in the next two months. Murray’s team is projecting comparatively modest deaths during that staggering surge, fewer than the number caused by Delta, owing to a vast number of the infections being mild or asymptomatic. But stealth spread coupled with Omicron’s rapid replication rate causes other sorts of problems; traditional public health strategies like testing, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine start to fall apart.
Immunogenic escape sounds particularly scary. Aftersuch a fierce battle to stay healthy until the vaccine arrives, or the fiercebattle with the virus itself, no one wants to know that they are vulnerable again. But variants of reinfection that do not pose chronic symptoms or risk for ventilators may not be so bad,Elizabeth Haroran, a biostatistician at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, told me. “If you can bypass the vaccine, but it causes a less serious illness, it’sprobably a step in the right direction.”
At this time, still little is known about the new Omicron variants. There is a lack of data, but knowing what will happen next depends heavily on two important questions. First, are the viruses more contagious, as some early reports suggest? Second, and perhaps more important to the economic outlook, how resistant are the new mutants to vaccines and existing immunity?
For the evaluation of the impact of Omicron on the future and on the Global economy besides on the pandemic spread-various bigger houses have already conducted research which is still going on. “THINK Economic and Financial Analysis” have picked up the following three main scenarios under the heading “Three Omicron Scenarios For Global Economy”:
Scenario 1: Optimistic Omicron
Omicron turned out to be a “storm in a bowl”. It may be because they don’t have a foothold for the Delta seen in beta earlier this year, orbecause it lowers the threat level of Covid 19 by reducing the likelihood of a serious illness.
Scenario 2: Omicron ‘difficult’ but not a ‘disaster’
This is roughly our basic case. The first signs of the benefits of transmission from Omicron are believed to be correct. This means that more people need immunity to stay in control of the virus. In reality, this threshold is already well below the Delta and very high, but countries with low vaccine intake in vulnerable groups face greater challenges.
Scenario 3 – Omicron deals a significant blow to the recovery.
This is the scenario where the market was first concerned when Omicron news was first reported. Vaccines are much harder to stop serious illnesses, and compared to other scenarios, Europe and the United States are particularly vulnerable to new surges in hospitalization. We also assume thatOmicron is more deadly.
Let us minimize our travels and roam around to the maximum. Let us also ensure that we go out only when the need is there. At least for these couple of weeks or so since the exact modus operandi of this Omicron is established. This-Omicron is a highly infectious variant is known but to what extent it is harmful to humans is still to be established in comparison to the already havoc-creating Delta variant.
Just wait, watch and pray that this new variant turns out to be a boon rather than a trigger for the further spread of the pandemic, and hence onwards there should not be any further complicated variant in the future so that the pandemic is wiped off once for all. Meanwhile, we have not to make any compromise with the main precautions to be taken during the pandemic without any relaxation.
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
####################
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$