What to expect from Nvidia’s upcoming 4Q results – Growbeansprout.com
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the AI chip giant, is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, February 26. Investors are eagerly watching to see if the company can maintain its impressive streak of beating and raising expectations. But with the stock in a recent lull, will this earnings report be enough to reignite its rally?
In this article, we’ll break down what to expect from Nvidia’s Q4 results, analyze expert insights, and explore whether the stock is poised for a comeback.
What to Expect from Nvidia’s Q4 Earnings Report
Nvidia has consistently outperformed market expectations in recent quarters, but this time, sentiment appears different. According to Ruben Roy, a top analyst at Stifel, expectations are lower heading into this earnings report.
- Revenue Forecast: Roy predicts Q4 revenue of 37.5billion,slightlybelowtheconsensusestimateof37.5billion,slightlybelowtheconsensusestimateof38.1 billion.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): He expects adjusted EPS of 0.83,closetotheconsensusestimateof0.83,closetotheconsensusestimateof0.85.
- Gross Margin: Roy forecasts an adjusted gross margin of 73.5%, aligning with the consensus of 73.4%.
While these numbers suggest a solid performance, they don’t indicate a blowout quarter.
Mixed Sentiment Around Nvidia’s AI Chip Demand
Nvidia’s dominance in the AI chip market is undeniable, but recent feedback from industry experts has been mixed.
- Blackwell Demand: Discussions around Nvidia’s Blackwell chips remain positive, but uncertainties about the timeline for meeting demand have created a “wide range of outcomes.”
- Market Jitters: Post-DeepSeek market volatility has added to investor concerns, making a strong positive catalyst less likely in the near term.
Roy believes that while the long-term outlook for Nvidia remains strong, short-term challenges could keep the stock from rallying immediately after earnings.
Is Nvidia Stock Undervalued?
Despite the cautious sentiment, Roy maintains a bullish stance on Nvidia. Here’s why:
- Valuation: Nvidia is currently trading at 27x Roy’s FY2027 EPS estimate of $5.12. This is below its five-year average multiple of 33x and far from its peak of 64x in late 2021.
- AI Infrastructure Growth: The underlying trends in AI infrastructure spending continue to favor Nvidia, making it a key player in the tech sector.
Roy rates Nvidia as a Buy with a $180 price target, suggesting a potential 38% upside.
Upcoming Catalyst: Nvidia’s GTC Conference
Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference (GTC), scheduled for March 17-21, could serve as a major catalyst for the stock.
- Technology Roadmap: Nvidia is expected to share updates on its latest innovations, including the Blackwell chip series.
- AI Use Cases: The company will likely provide deeper insights into emerging AI applications and customer adoption trends.
This event could reignite investor enthusiasm and drive the stock higher.
Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy for Nvidia
Most analysts agree with Roy’s optimistic outlook.
- Buy Ratings: 31 out of 33 analysts rate Nvidia as a Buy, with only 2 recommending a Hold.
- Price Target: The average price target of $178.81 implies a 37% upside over the next year.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Nvidia’s Q4 earnings report is unlikely to be a blockbuster, but the company’s long-term prospects remain strong.
- The upcoming GTC conference could serve as a catalyst for the stock.
- With shares trading below their historical valuation, Nvidia presents a compelling opportunity for growth-oriented investors.
