Black Friday sales rise, signaling US consumers’ resilience
Black Friday spending in the US saw a noticeable boost this year, but the reality behind the numbers tells a more complicated story.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, overall retail sales on Black Friday 2025 went up by 4.1% compared to last year. Online shopping was even stronger—Adobe Analytics reported a 9.1% jump, with shoppers spending $11.8 billion on the internet alone.
But here’s the catch: inflation is still eating into these gains. With prices up around 3%, the actual increase in real spending may be closer to just 1%.
Why the Rise Doesn’t Tell the Full Story
Experts say the current economy is “K-shaped,” meaning different groups of Americans are experiencing completely different realities.
High-income shoppers—who’ve benefited from rising stock markets and higher home values—are spending freely on travel, luxury goods, and wardrobe upgrades. Meanwhile, many low- and middle-income families are tightening their budgets as everyday expenses climb.
Claudia Lombana, a consumer expert, summed it up simply:
“The higher-income households are spending confidently, while everyone else is budgeting carefully.”
What’s Driving That Divide?
Economist Rick Newman explained it as two sides of the same “K”:
- Top of the K: People with homes, investments, and steady jobs feel comfortable spending this holiday season.
- Bottom of the K: Households without these financial cushions are worrying about job security, rent increases, higher grocery bills, and rising heating costs.
Newman believes many families on the lower end will “pinch pennies” this holiday season, especially with rising natural gas prices and ongoing rent hikes.
Tariffs and Higher Costs Are Weighing on Shoppers
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 85% of consumers expect higher prices due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. People might not calculate the tariff impact item by item, but they definitely feel the squeeze.
Add to that a federal government shutdown earlier this year that temporarily disrupted SNAP benefits, and it’s no surprise that low-income shoppers have become more selective and deal-focused.
Where Shoppers Are Spending
With budgets tighter, shoppers are flocking to stores that offer strong value. Retailers like:
- Walmart
- TJ Maxx
- Gap
…all reported strong sales, thanks to value-driven shoppers looking for the best deals.
But not all brands are having a good season. Chains such as Target and Bath & Body Works are struggling, especially as customers cut back on “self-gifting.”
Holiday Spending Outlook
Despite the financial pressure, holiday spirit is still alive. The NRF expects holiday sales for November and December to grow between 3.7% and 4.2%, similar to last year. Total holiday spending is projected to hit a record $1 trillion.
Online deals also played a huge role this year:
- Apparel spending: up 6.1% online, 5.4% in stores
- Thanksgiving Day online sales: a record $6.4 billion, up 5.3%
- Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): expected to hit $20.2 billion, up 11%
Adobe says the “magnitude of discounts” this year was a major driver behind the online surge.
What to Expect Next
Half of American shoppers had already started their holiday purchases by Halloween. Retailers are now looking to Cyber Monday to deliver another strong day of sales.
Even though shoppers are more cautious, consumer expert Claudia Lombana believes people still want to enjoy the season:
“They’re watching their budgets, but they’re still trying to embrace the holiday spirit.”
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