What is Russia’s Theory of Victory in Ukraine? – Modern War Institute
The article, “Ukraine’s path to victory runs through the streets of Moscow” by Matthew Schmidt on CNN, assesses the current state of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Schmidt, a strategic planning expert, emphasizes the pivotal role of political dynamics in shaping the outcome of the war, highlighting three possible scenarios: a Russian victory with territorial concessions from Ukraine, a Ukrainian victory involving the reclaiming of Crimea, or a frozen conflict with a political resolution in the future.
Schmidt underscores the challenges facing Ukraine, particularly in light of public sentiment favoring the continuation of the fight against Russia. The analysis delves into the influence of war on politics, drawing on the insights of 19th-century Prussian philosopher Clausewitz. The piece argues that, despite Ukraine’s notable battlefield performance, it has yet to significantly impact the political landscape in Moscow.
The article suggests two potential paths for Ukraine’s victory: a rapid and decisive capture of Crimea with Western support or a longer-term strategy involving a ceasefire, economic revival, and political resilience. Schmidt emphasizes the importance of Western aid, advanced weaponry, and a commitment to Ukraine’s security and economic reconstruction. The ultimate goal is for Ukraine to become a thriving, secure, and European nation, aligning with Clausewitz’s notion that war is a means to achieve political objectives.
#UkraineConflict #PoliticalStrategy #RussiaUkraineWar #PathToVictory #ClausewitzPerspective