The war in Ukraine is set for a massive escalation in spring as both Moscow and Kyiv prepare to launch major military offensives.
NSA-President Putin meeting points to the new dynamic surrounding India’s engagement with Russia
By: Editorial
February 13, 2023 06:20 IST
National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s visit to Moscow last week to attend a meeting of regional security advisers yielded a diplomatic bonus — a separate audience with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin. While an engagement with the top national security officials in the region is a valuable tool, there were no expectations of a breakthrough. There are just too many regional forums on Afghanistan, but none of Kabul’s neighbours have the clout to alter the geopolitical churn there. Putin’s decision to break the protocol and meet a top Indian official is arguably a more interesting outcome from Doval’s Moscow visit. The Russian president rarely meets foreign cabinet ministers let alone security officials. That Doval’s audience with Putin came after the Indian national security adviser’s recent visits to Washington and London — which are leading the Western coalition to support Ukraine in its efforts to vacate the Russian aggression that began a year ago this month — has also lent a special context to Doval’s talks in Moscow. Although Delhi and Moscow have been tightlipped about the details of Putin’s message to Doval, the new dynamic surrounding India’s engagement with Moscow is hard to miss.
The war in Ukraine is set for a massive escalation in spring as both Moscow and Kyiv prepare to launch major military offensives. The massive costs of the war are also boosting voices demanding early diplomatic negotiations to end the war. Delhi, which has consistently called for cessation of violence and dialogue in Ukraine, is preparing to host the G-20 and SCO summits this year, and will be expected to play a constructive role in facilitating the dialogue between Russia, Ukraine and the West. Keeping channels open to Russia while sustaining the engagement with the West are critical preconditions for any effective Indian diplomacy on Ukraine.
Beyond India’s long-shot potential role for peacemaking in Ukraine, the confrontation between Russia and the West has severely constrained India’s great power relations. Adding complexity to the challenge has been the sharpening territorial conflict between India and China since 2020 and the “new alliance without limits” that Beijing and Moscow unveiled last year. On its part, India has stepped up its engagement with the US to cope with the Chinese threat, but has avoided a rupture in the relations with Russia. To be sure, Moscow is none too happy with Delhi’s embrace of the Indo-Pacific construct and the Quad. Nor can it be pleased with the new initiatives to deepen defence and technology partnerships between India and the US that promise to reduce the salience of Delhi’s Moscow connection over the longer term. Yet Moscow has no reason to alienate Delhi amidst Russia’s growing international isolation. Delhi’s tightrope walk between Russia and the West has been impressive so far; but it is likely to get a lot trickier as the war in Ukraine enters a new and bloodier phase.
© The Indian Express (P) Ltd