The minimum figure given by the three polls is 361
New Delhi: The BJP’s ambitious goal of winning 400 Lok Sabha seats under the slogan “Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar” seems closer to reality as three exit polls project significant victories for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Despite opposition ridicule, the ruling party may have the last laugh if these predictions hold true.
Exit Poll Projections
News 24-Today’s Chanakya estimates the NDA’s tally at exactly 400 seats, with a margin of error of 15 seats, putting the actual range between 385 and 415. India TV-CNX predicts a range of 371-401 seats, while India Today-Axis My India forecasts between 361 and 401 seats. These projections suggest that the NDA could surpass its 2019 performance, where it secured 352 seats, with the BJP alone winning 303.
A Historical Milestone
If the NDA achieves even the lowest estimate of 361 seats, it will mark a significant achievement, showcasing an increase in voter support despite anti-incumbency factors. Prime Minister Narendra Modi securing a third straight term would be historic, further cementing his popularity and the effectiveness of the party’s election machinery.
Opposition’s Predicament
In stark contrast, the opposition INDIA Alliance, which claimed it would win 295 seats, has been given a considerably lower count in the exit polls. Today’s Chanakya forecasts 107 seats (plus-minus 11) for the alliance, CNX estimates between 109 and 139 seats, and Axis My India projects 131-166 seats.
Key State Insights
Uttar Pradesh, with its 80 Lok Sabha seats, remains crucial. In 2019, the BJP won 62 seats in the state. This year, all three polls predict an even better performance for the party. News 24-Today’s Chanakya estimates 68 seats (plus-minus 7), India Today-Axis My India projects 67-72 seats, and India TV-CNX foresees 70-74 seats.
South and West Bengal Trends
The NDA is also expected to improve its performance in the South compared to 2019. Another notable trend is the BJP’s predicted success over the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. Axis My India estimates that the BJP could win 26-31 of the state’s 42 seats, a significant gain for the ruling party at the center.
Overall Poll of Polls
Different news agencies provide varying figures for the NDA, but the trend remains favorable. ABP News-C Voter projects 353-383 seats, Dainik Bhaskar gives a broader range of 281-350, and India News-D-Dynamics places the NDA at 371 seats. Other notable estimates include Jan Ki Baat (362-392), Republic Bharat-Matrize (353-368), and Times Now-ETG (358). The NDTV Poll of Polls consolidates these figures to give the NDA an average of 365 seats.
Caution on Exit Polls
While these projections paint a promising picture for the NDA, it’s crucial to remember that exit polls are not always accurate. Historical data shows variations between exit polls and actual results, making the final count uncertain until official results are announced.
Conclusion
The exit poll predictions, if accurate, indicate a landslide victory for the NDA, surpassing their previous record and further solidifying their political dominance. The opposition, despite its confidence, faces a daunting challenge as the NDA appears poised to exceed expectations. As the nation awaits the official results, the potential for a historic electoral win looms large for the ruling alliance.
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