Gold surges past $3,800/oz to record high on rate cut bets, geopolitical concerns
Gold prices climbed sharply on Monday, touching $3,817 per ounce—its highest level ever—after breaking through the key $3,800 mark. The surge came as investors rushed toward safe-haven assets amid growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates.
According to futures markets, there’s now a 90% chance of a rate cut in October and about a 65% chance of another in December. These expectations, along with a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed trade tensions following President Trump’s new tariffs on imported goods, have fueled gold’s powerful rally.
Technical Outlook
Gold remains strong on the charts. It’s trading well within its upward trend, with immediate support at $3,767 and deeper support near $3,731. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67.6, showing bullish momentum without being overbought—meaning there’s still room for prices to climb.
Experts believe that if gold breaks cleanly above $3,850, it could quickly move toward the $3,900 level. As long as support holds above $3,730, the trend remains solidly positive, and any short-term dips may attract fresh buying.
What’s Driving the Rally
Several factors are giving gold its shine right now:
- Easing inflation pressure: The latest U.S. inflation report matched forecasts, supporting the idea that the Fed can safely cut rates.
- New trade tariffs: President Trump’s upcoming tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture are adding uncertainty to global trade.
- Political risks: The threat of a U.S. government shutdown is pushing more investors to hedge with gold.
What to Watch This Week
Key U.S. data—such as job openings, payroll figures, and manufacturing reports—could shape the Fed’s next move.
- Weaker labor data might push gold even higher by strengthening the case for rate cuts.
- Stronger numbers could pause the rally temporarily, possibly causing prices to consolidate between $3,730 and $3,760 before rising again.
The Bottom Line
Gold’s breakout above $3,800 marks a pivotal moment. Unless unexpected economic data changes the outlook, experts say the path ahead remains bullish, with potential gains toward $3,850–$3,900 as investors continue to seek stability in uncertain times.
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