When it comes to trade wars, Donald Trump has never shied away from confrontation. Now, as tensions flare again between Washington and Beijing, analysts believe the former U.S. president may have found China’s economic weak spot — its control over rare earth minerals.
China currently dominates the global supply, refining over 90% of the world’s processed rare earths and magnets, essential for everything from smartphones to fighter jets. Recently, Beijing tightened export controls, signaling it was ready to use its mineral monopoly as leverage in ongoing geopolitical disputes.
But Trump’s camp isn’t backing down. His administration insists the U.S. holds several “monopoly positions” of its own — in areas far more strategic than China’s. “I’ve just not chosen to use them — until now,” Trump declared on Truth Social, hinting at powerful countermeasures.
The Rare Earths Gamble
Experts say Beijing’s strategy could backfire. While China’s dominance in rare earth processing gives it short-term leverage, it also makes it highly dependent on exports to the U.S. and its allies — the very markets now seeking alternatives.
According to market analysts, Trump’s move to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and add software restrictions could severely hit China’s high-tech industries. That’s because rare earths are not just raw materials; they are the lifeblood of advanced manufacturing.
America’s Strategic Edge
The U.S. has been steadily investing in domestic rare earth mining and building partnerships with allies like Australia, Canada, and Japan to diversify global supply. This coordinated effort could neutralize China’s dominance within a few years.
Additionally, the U.S. controls key sectors in semiconductors, AI software, and defense technologies — areas where China still relies heavily on Western innovation. These are the “monopoly positions” Trump referenced, and they could form the backbone of a broader economic counterstrike.
What Happens Next
If Trump moves forward with stronger sanctions or resource restrictions, the world could witness a major realignment in global trade. Beijing’s attempt to weaponize rare earths might trigger an international coalition to reduce dependency on Chinese resources altogether — a move that could reshape global power dynamics.
In short, what was once China’s greatest strength could soon become its biggest vulnerability.
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