The ‘big stay’ and a ‘no-hire, no-fire’ freeze change to labor markets
The US job market has entered what economists call the “Great Freeze.” Layoffs are rare, hiring is slow, and many professionals feel trapped in roles with little room for growth.
ZipRecruiter’s latest report shows both companies and job seekers are waiting for better times. “We’re seeing employers and job seekers both trying to wait out any of the uncertainty,” said Nicole Bachaud, labor economist at ZipRecruiter.
Why Companies Are Freezing Hiring and Firing
Economists say businesses are keeping workers because the economy is steady, and profits remain healthy. Jason Draho from UBS Global Wealth Management noted that “earnings are still positive, and businesses are still making money.” Yet, they’re cautious about adding new staff because of tariff concerns, AI disruptions, and supply challenges.
Stephen Juneau of Bank of America added that fewer foreign workers are entering the US, which slows workforce growth. This limited labor supply makes employers even more hesitant to make big staffing changes.
Labor Hoarding: Playing It Safe
Experts call this trend labor hoarding—when companies hold on to employees to avoid future shortages. Daniel Zhao, chief economist at Glassdoor, said, “After the Great Resignation, many businesses don’t want to risk losing workers and struggle to rehire.”
Still, if the economy weakens, this hoarding may not last. “If cash reserves shrink, businesses will eventually cut jobs,” Zhao warned.
What It Means for Workers and Job Seekers
For workers, job security has improved. For job seekers, competition remains tight. In August, there were 7.4 million unemployed Americans and 7.2 million job openings, making it harder to find a good match.
Many are accepting roles that don’t align with their skills or pay expectations. “Workers often settle for jobs that don’t match their experience,” Zhao said.
Low hiring also slows career mobility. The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker shows that pay raises for people switching jobs are now similar to those staying put—a sharp change from previous years.
Bachaud warned that too much stability can stifle innovation. “Employers focusing only on stability risk losing growth. Employees stay stuck without new skills or advancement,” she said.
How Workers Can Stay Competitive
Experts advise employees to upskill within their current roles. Learning new tools or completing certifications can strengthen résumés when hiring rebounds. Staying visible in your field can make the difference once the freeze begins to thaw.
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