How Trumponomics works for India, and how it doesn’t – The Economic Times
When Donald Trump took over as the President of the United States in January 2017, global politics entered a new chapter. Known for his unconventional style, strong opinions, and “America First” policy, Trump reshaped not only America’s internal landscape but also how the U.S. interacted with the rest of the world — including India. But here’s the real question: What happened to India after Trump’s rise to power?
Let’s break it down and explore how India fared — economically, technically, and commercially — in the post-Trump era. And don’t worry, this isn’t just political jargon. We’ll keep it simple, human, and easy to follow.
Trump and India: Not Just a Handshake
Before we dive into the numbers, let’s talk chemistry. The Trump-Modi camaraderie was real. From the “Howdy Modi” event in Houston to the “Namaste Trump” rally in Ahmedabad, these leaders made a show of friendship. But beyond the optics, there were some real shifts taking place.
This U.S.-India relationship had long-term implications, especially in areas like defense, technology partnerships, trade deals, and digital cooperation. Many of these initiatives laid the foundation for India’s current economic growth story.
Economic Growth: A New Decade, New Aspirations
India’s economy has always had potential. But post-2017, something shifted. While demonetization and GST had initially slowed things down, Trump’s policies and a changing global trade scenario opened new doors.
1. Rise of “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (Self-Reliant India)
In response to growing global protectionism — which Trump championed — India realized it needed to build from within. By 2020, Prime Minister Modi launched the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, focusing on manufacturing, startups, and digital infrastructure.
And here’s the kicker — this wasn’t just lip service.
- Manufacturing investment rose by 18% year-on-year between 2018 and 2023.
- Global giants like Apple, Samsung, and Foxconn moved large parts of their assembly and production units to India.
- India’s PLI (Production-Linked Incentive) scheme attracted over $25 billion in FDI in sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.
2. Export Boom and Trade Balance Shifts
Though Trump imposed tariffs on China, he allowed room for India to step in. And boy, did India capitalize.
- India’s software exports hit $150 billion in FY2023, up from $108 billion in 2016.
- Pharmaceutical exports grew by over 40%, with Indian generics dominating the U.S. market.
- Engineering goods, textiles, and processed foods found new buyers in American and European markets.
Even though the India-U.S. trade deal didn’t go through formally under Trump, negotiations led to better market access for Indian goods and services.
Technology: India’s Silent Revolution
Let’s talk tech. This is where things get really exciting.
3. Silicon Valley Meets Bengaluru
Trump’s presidency may have tightened H1-B visa rules, but it also gave Indian tech firms a wake-up call: innovate or stagnate.
The response? A digital explosion.
- India’s startup ecosystem exploded, going from a few unicorns in 2016 to over 115 unicorns by 2023.
- Companies like Zomato, BYJU’S, Paytm, and Freshworks became global names.
- Data centers, AI hubs, and cloud infrastructure scaled up massively, supported by policies like IndiaStack and Digital India 2.0.
And let’s not forget how American tech giants doubled down on Indian soil:
- Google invested $10 billion for digitization.
- Facebook (Meta) and Amazon boosted investments for small business digitization and e-commerce penetration.
4. 5G, AI & Semiconductors: The New Playground
India wasn’t just playing catch-up — it was setting the pace in many areas.
- In 2022, India rolled out 5G across multiple cities. Today, it’s one of the fastest-growing 5G markets globally.
- The government launched missions to build indigenous semiconductor ecosystems, roping in companies like Vedanta-Foxconn and Micron Technology.
- AI adoption in sectors like healthcare, agriculture, and fintech accelerated, with India becoming a global AI service hub for developing nations.
Commercial Expansion: India as the New Global Player
While Trump aimed to pull the U.S. out of global trade pacts, India quietly positioned itself as a leader in new-age commerce.
5. India as a Trusted Supply Chain Partner
Trump’s tough stance on China during the trade war nudged global manufacturers to “look beyond China.” Guess who was ready? India.
- Apple shifted 10% of its iPhone production to India by 2023.
- Vietnam, Mexico, and India emerged as the top “China+1” strategy options for global firms, with India taking the lion’s share in tech and pharma.
- Logistics improved through initiatives like Dedicated Freight Corridors and Gati Shakti (infrastructure acceleration).
Growing Middle Class = Booming Consumer Market
Let’s not forget domestic consumption. With a growing middle class and rising disposable income:
- E-commerce sales crossed $130 billion in 2023.
- Sectors like fashion, electronics, and online groceries exploded.
- Global brands entered Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities for the first time.
From New York to New Delhi, the world started watching India’s consumer trends.
The Global Stage: Diplomacy Meets Dollars
India’s position on the global stage changed, too.
- It joined the Quad alliance with the U.S., Japan, and Australia to counterbalance China.
- India’s role in climate talks, WTO debates, and global digital governance grew stronger.
- By 2024, India became the fifth-largest economy in the world, surpassing the UK.
And let’s face it — none of this happened in isolation. The Trump presidency may have been controversial, but it inadvertently created space for India’s rise in a reshuffling world order.
Final Thoughts: What Does the Future Hold?
India after Trump? Stronger, sharper, and more self-confident. The U.S.-India relationship has evolved from dependence to partnership. India now stands as a reliable tech powerhouse, an alternative manufacturing hub, and a rising digital economy.
While Trump’s policies may have disrupted global norms, they also acted as a catalyst for India to rethink, reform, and reinvent.
If there’s one lesson here, it’s this: in global politics and economics, sometimes challenges are opportunities in disguise — and India grabbed them with both hands.
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