After the heartbreaking attack in Pahalgam, where 26 lives were lost, India has decided to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan. But what does this really mean for the region—and for the future of water-sharing between the two countries? Let’s break it down in simple terms.
What Just Happened?
In a major geopolitical move, India has put the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 on hold. This decision follows the tragic killings in Jammu and Kashmir, prompting India to reconsider its long-standing water-sharing agreement with Pakistan.
Now, this might sound like just another diplomatic action—but it’s a lot more significant when you dig into the details.
Why the Indus Waters Treaty Matters
Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the IWT divided the use of six rivers between India and Pakistan:
- Eastern Rivers: Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi — allocated to India.
- Western Rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — mostly allocated to Pakistan.
The idea? Share the waters peacefully to avoid conflict in a post-Partition world. But with Pakistan being the lower riparian country and India as the upper riparian, the power dynamic has always leaned one way.
India’s Strategic Leverage as Upper Riparian
Former Indus Waters Commissioner Pradeep Kumar Saxena recently explained that India has multiple options now that the treaty is suspended. Here’s a quick look at what India could do:
1. Reservoir Flushing and Filling – On Its Own Terms
India was restricted from flushing and filling reservoirs outside of the monsoon window. But with the treaty in abeyance? India can now manage its water storage year-round, potentially disrupting Pakistan’s crucial sowing seasons.
2. Build Hydropower Projects Without Objections
Projects like Kishanganga, Baglihar, and Ratle have always faced objections from Pakistan. Now, India isn’t obligated to entertain those concerns—giving it the green light to accelerate new hydro projects.
3. Pause Flood Data Sharing
India has been sharing critical flood data with Pakistan. That might now stop—posing a significant challenge for Pakistan during monsoon season.
4. No More Operational Constraints
Reservoir operations were bound by the treaty’s strict guidelines. But that playbook is now shelved. India can operate dams and control flow as needed.
Can India Officially Abrogate the Treaty?
While the treaty itself doesn’t contain a termination clause, international law provides a window. According to Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, a “fundamental change of circumstances” could justify withdrawal.
Given the persistent cross-border tensions and support for terrorism, India has a legitimate argument if it decides to go all the way.
So, What’s Next?
Here’s what we might see in the coming months:
- Accelerated infrastructure: New hydropower and irrigation projects.
- Legal battles: Possibly at international forums.
- Tighter water control: Impacting Pakistan’s agricultural planning.
- Diplomatic friction: Water politics will likely take center stage.
The Bigger Picture: Security Meets Sustainability
The Indus Waters Treaty has long been hailed as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in history. But times have changed. Security, sovereignty, and sustainability now dominate the conversation. As India recalibrates its water diplomacy, the world will be watching. Will this mark the end of an era—or the start of a new chapter in South Asia’s river politics?